More Rain and Less Snow: Observations from Southern Wisconsin

    Being 25 years old (and consciously aware of climate change for 15 years), there may be enough of a signal in the climate to register to me. Namely, I’ve noticed summer rains becoming more and more frequent. Every year or two there would be about one 2” storm. Now, it feels like this happens a couple times per year, and sometimes storms well exceed 3, 4, or even 5 inches. I am always skeptical of antidotal observations, even my own (see confirmation bias), unless it can be validated by some kind of data. 

    enough, Wisconsin has seen a significant increase in Summer precipitation, particularly in southern WI, and this trend is projected to increase into the future under a moderate emissions projection. Granted, while this trend in observation covers 30 years of data, there is a noticeable trend even between 2003 (when I was in Kindergarten) and 2018. Therefore, I do think my observations are correct. 

A noticeable trend exists in heavy rainfall across time in the state. From cleanwisconsin.com

Historical observations show an increase in the frequency of heavy rainfall events, particularly in southern Wisconsin, and is expected to continue into the future. From WI Initiative on Climate Change

     

    Beyond my relatively short lifespan, one great resource is the Old Man himself, my dad  Jeff. I asked him about any trends he’s noticed in his lifetime, and over the past 50-ish years the largest thing he’s seen is the decrease in consistent snowbase. He and his parents (my grandparents) would snowmobile quite frequently, and in southern Wisconsin it was typical to have a thick snowbase for a good while of the winter. Sure, the snow might melt at some points, but you could count on having good snowmobiling conditions in the Kettle Moraine region just north of Milwaukee at some point during the year. Furthermore, many snowmelts would not melt the entire snowpack, leaving a snowbase for snowmobilers to use. Now, this rarely happens. The snowbase in southern Wisconsin will often completely melt a week or two after any snowfall, meaning that a thick snowbase never accumulates over several snow events. As a result, the trails around the area are rarely open, and if they are, it is quite short lived or in poor conditions. Now, the only good snow you can count on is up north.

Snowmobiles in Theresa, WI in 1978 for the annual Snowmobile Dance at Fireman’s Park. To have an annual snowmobile-themed event in southern Wisconsin is unpractical these days due to a very inconsistent snowbase (WI Historical Society, Image ID: 87393)

    Sure enough, my dad isn’t BS-ing on his account. Climate data show that the average in average winter temperatures have risen quite substantially, and much more than for other seasons. This would mean that a snowmelt that may happen once or twice in a winter is happening 5 or 6 times, and the snowmelts are more intense, causing the entire snowbase to completely melt away, and with it, an important cultural identity of southern Wisconsin. 

Every location in Wisconsin has seen a significant increase in mean winter temperatures, meaning that snowmelts happen more frequently and more intensely. From WI Initiative on Climate Change

 Final thoughts:

For this class, I think my general takeaway is a reminder of how Wisconsin and the Midwest is a heavily altered landscape, but a beautiful one nevertheless. While the days of vast prairies and oak savannas and dense pine forests are long gone, there are still remnants scattered across the landscape, and restoration efforts provide a glimpse into a landscape that once was. Only by knowing the history of the land use of Wisconsin can we progress into a sustainable and restorable future.